Treadmill Pacing and January Round-Up

Happy Saturday!  Remember how my legs felt so fatigued on Thursday and therefore I only ran 30 minutes?  Well, yesterday I went back to the treadmill and felt awesome!

Day 5 - 7.5 miles in 60 minutes - 8:00 average

I really didn't think I'd make it the full hour again last night because I thought for sure my legs would feel so tired and sluggish like they did Thursday.  I started the treadmill at 6.7 (8:57 pace) and increased by .1 every time the song changed (I always do my treadmill workouts by number of songs instead of minutes).  I wasn't sure how long I'd make it and kind of thought once I got to 7.5 (8:00 pace), I would just keep it there and cruise for as long as I could, hopefully an hour.  But I was feeling great, so I just kept increasing with each song and when I got to about 43 minutes I really wanted to quit...but I had made it that far so quitting wasn't allowed.  I finished the run at 8.3 (7:14 pace) for a total of 7.5 in 60 minutes - exactly 8:00 pace average.

Boom.  I did not expect to have that good of a workout after Thursday's not-so -good workout.  But I guess I just needed a bit of a rest day!  Today will probably be an easier day.  And we are getting more snow :(  So I think the treadmill will be calling my name for awhile.  And I will answer it's call and bring my BFFs Katy Perry, Taylor Swift, and a few others to help get me through it.

Here's a treadmill pace chart:

And alas, it is February.  So I must do my analytical-self thing and give you a recap of my January mileage:

Total Miles - 66

Total Runs - 12

Average Miles/Run - 5.5

And here is a comparison of this January to all my previous Januaries since 2008:

I think I was trying to get super motived in 2012 and show the tax busy season who's the boss...but it didn't work out (tax busy season is always the winner) and by April of that year, I wasn't running any more... but we can analyze that when we get there.

All in all, I guess the years I'd want compare to the most are 2010 and 2013 because those are the years (although not until October) that I ran good marathons.  However, January 2010 was when I was still injured (groin muscle) so running was a struggle until May/June.  I think I'm where I need to be for now, just building up the base and mileage.  And actually, about half that January 2014 mileage is from the past 5 days.  So my goal for February is to run higher mileage, but evenly spaces throughout the month.  That shouldn't be a problem if I keep up with my 30-Day Challenge!
 
I didn't do a Friday Five post this week, but I do have a few really great articles or blog posts you should check out!

What I Learned From My First Marathon - from Kristin @ Glitter and Dust

15 Reasons Cousins Make The Best Friends - Thought Catalog

Weight Is Just A Number - from Elise @ 9 to Fit
Los Angeles Will Host The 2016 Olympic Marathon Trials - LA Times
Season of Humbling - from Katie @ Peace, Love, & Oats
Why Can You Bet on the Super Bowl But Not Races? - Runner's World

Treadmill Motivation & Geese

Monday I did half of a progression run.  I don't know why.  I was on the treadmill and 3 miles in it came time to increase the pace, but stopping seemed like a better option.  I was sweating quite a bit and working hard at it, but as I walked home from the gym, I felt like I wasn't even tired.  Maybe that's a good thing, but then again it was only 3 miles so it shouldn't feel hard to me.

I did the first mile in close to 9 minutes, then the next 2 at 7:30 and 7:19, respectively.  I was trying to take it a mile at a time, but wasn't having it I guess.  I wasn't in a bad mood or anything, I was just super bored and yes, it was hard, even though I ran 18 miles of the marathon at 7:30 pace and plan to run a half marathon even faster than that.  Actually, Sara Hall, a professional track athlete, tweeted this a few days ago:

It really is true.  A 7:30 pace on a normal day feels like I'm really working, but during the marathon, it felt so easy to maintain for a long time.  And outside, I feel like I could run like 5 times as long without nearly as much problem as on the treadmill.  Last week I did the  same progression run I was aiming for this Monday, but made it through the whole 6 miles.

I don't know why one day can be fine and I can get through it without as much difficulty and then another day all I want to do is stop.  And the problem with the treadmill is that you can just stop running at any time.  You can't do that outside.  You can't go out for a 6 mile run and get 3 miles away and decide you're done, because you still have to get back home.

There's nothing left to do though except get over it and focus on the next run.  At least I had 2 miles at a faster pace than my standard 8 minute.  Gotta work in that pace variety!

Yesterday, I decided to take a slightly longer lunch break and go for a run outside.  It was very chilly, but I bundled up and wore my new hat.  I didn't bring a watch, but mapped out the run to about 5 miles.  The first and last half mile were super slow because of traffic lights and pedestrians, but once I got to the lakefront, it was smooth sailing (aka running...all the boats are gone from the harbors!)

I ran south on the path to the museums and Soldier Field and then headed back north the same way.  It was very nice and peaceful compared to my runs on the lakefront this summer.  In the summer, the path is crowded not only with runners, but also bikers and I'm still afraid I'm going to get hit by one again.  But running in the middle of the workday in the chilly weather means very little people outside!  But as I've said before, I watch too many episodes of SVU to feel safe running out there by myself, with few people around, next to a lake.

But I wasn't just worried about human predators.  There were so many geese!  If one of those things came charging at me squawking with its beak out, I'd have no choice but to go dive in the lake.  I wish I took a picture of the geese.  Next time I promise I will.  I need to get better about taking pictures!  But I also don't want to stop TOO much during a run for pictures.  Oh well, all about balance.

How do you motivate yourself to keep going on the treadmill when it's so easy to stop?

Have you ever been threatened by geese or other animals on a run?

Race Recap: CHICAGO MARATHON 2013

Well, the Chicago Marathon is over!  I have so much to say about it and don't know where to start, so this will probably end up a little scattered, but I'll do my best.  And I'll also probably have a post every day this week on various events of race weekend (the expo, the pasta party, the recovery, etc.) but I'll try to keep this one to the actual race recap.

Summary/spoiler alert: I finished in 3:23:15!  A PR by close to 6 minutes and Boston Qualifier!

My parents dropped off Angela, Olivia, and I as close as they could to the starting area and we made our way through the security checkpoints.  The weather turned out to be absolutely perfect for marathon running, but the morning was rather chilly.  We were wearing clothes that we could discard at the start line and never see again - to be donated to a homeless shelter in Chicago.  Angela and I discarded our clothes right before entering the corral and a man with a vest that said "Clothing Donations" was on his walkie talkie saying "we are going to need way more bins."  There were mountains of sweatpants and sweatshirts all around.

We also waited in a really long porta-potty line...but glad we did so before the race.  Once we got settled in a spot in the corral, it was time to go within about 5-10 minutes.

The first 8 miles of the race flew by.  It was definitely the easiest/most fun hour-ish of running I've ever done.  Our goal was to start at 8 minute pace for 4 miles and then pick it up to 7:30-7:40.  I don't remember splits exactly, but I think the first mile was 7:49 so we said we could ease up a bit.  The problem was that we were stuck behind the 3:30 pace group which was huge and taking up a lot of space all running together.  So over the next 3 miles, we were still doing about 7:45-7:50 working our way up and around that 3:30 group, but still not trying to go too fast.

We saw so many people throughout the course - the first being Catherine and Matt around mile 3.  I almost missed them but luckily they saw us and called out...and I heard them over my awesome playlist of music which will be a whole separate post because obviously you need to know exactly what I listened to for 26.2 miles.

 

I think I could also write a decent amount on all my spectators and signs, so I will save that for later, but the important thing right now is that I saw my family around mile 4.5 for the first time and I was STARVING (I'll explain why when I write about the pasta party...do you like all my cliffhangers?) so I yelled to my mom to buy me a bagel.

Sure enough, when I saw them again around mile 11, my dad had the bagel for me so I grabbed half and ate it while running.  I took water at every water stop, and Gatorade at I think only 2 during the first half and every station the 2nd half.  Apparently when you lose a lot of sodium, your body essentially starts producing salt, so I had a white ring around my face when I finished.  I also took GU Energy Gel 3 times throughout the race - around miles 9, 16, and 22.

Angela and I didn't talk much throughout the race, but when we did, the conversation went like this:

*Pass a mile marker*

"7:32"

"We should slow down a little and save it for later"

"Yeah, we should"

*Pass a mile marker*

"7:26"

"We should slow down"

"Yeah, we should"

*Pass a mile marker*

"7:34"

"This is comfortable, but we should maybe slow down a little more"

"Yeah, we should"

But we did not slow down.  I personally am glad we did not...hopefully Angela feels OK about it.  I know it is best to run negative or even splits (or even slightly positive splits at the marathon distance since negative/even splits are extremely difficult at that distance), but I also knew that by the time we were at mile 9, I needed to just go with it while I felt good.  And I did feel really good.  Angela decided to ease up a little and dropped back from me around mile 15-16.

(professional photo by MarathonFoto)

Around mile 19, Mac magically appeared.  I was very surprised because he had passed Angela and I around mile 10, but apparently he made a bathroom pit stop somewhere along the way.  He and I ran together for about the next 2 miles until he started to fade back a little.

I was actually pleasantly surprised with how even my pacing was for all of the race.  Yes, I died off the last 10k, but not nearly as much as I could have (or did during my previous marathons).  I ran it pretty exactly according to my plan.  Since I knew I wanted to beat my time from the Columbus Marathon in 2010 and I knew my splits from that race at the 10k, half, and 20 mile marks, that's what I was comparing myself to.  I was 1:40 ahead of pace at the 10k, which worried me a little because I was afraid maybe we did go out a little too fast.  But actually, I remember thinking I was only 40 seconds ahead...not a minute and 40 seconds.

(professional photo by MarathonFoto) 

And it's a good thing I did think that because at the half, I was 58 seconds ahead of my first half of Columbus.  And knowing myself, if I would've thought that I went from being 1:40 ahead of pace to only 0:58 ahead of pace, that might've mentally screwed me up a bit...but what you don't know can't hurt you.

After we hit the halfway mark, my plan was just to make it to 20 as fast as I could, knowing that no matter what, the last 10k was going to be miserable.  I wanted to/thought I could be at mile 20 between 2:31 and 2:34.  My brain was shut down at this time, but I think I remember being there right around 2:32:00 - 2:32:30, which was 2 to 2 and a half minutes ahead of my Columbus pace.  I didn't mentally put that split into my head though because I thought they recorded a 20 mile split with the chip so I figured I'd look later, but I guess not.

(professional photo by MarathonFoto)

Where I started to really struggle was around mile 18.  I knew I had about an hour or so to go and knew I could do it, but that's where I did start to experience some mental doubt in how fast I could realistically do those last 8 miles...I went from feeling pretty awesome to not so great pretty darn quickly.  I made the decision to walk through the next water stop I saw and that I'd walk through each one after that, which is also exactly what I did in Columbus.

So I would run all the way to the very last Gatorade person at each water station, take that cup, and start walking while I drank it and then take one of the very first cups of water, drink what I could, and make myself start running.  I imagine each stop was about 30 seconds, but really I had no concept of time.  I once again surprised myself with the fact that I really did make myself start running ASAP after drinking my liquids.

The last mile was pretty much the worst thing ever, especially "Mt. Roosevelt," the small hill within in the final 400 meters of the course. By this point I really knew I was going to finish in a great time though, so that made me push throug that final mile. And I saw Aunt Bernadette  saying "you're doing it!" Because she knew I would PR.

And then I finished!!

 (professional photo by MarathonFoto)

So I have a lot more details I could share and want to share, but those will come later this week because I've done enough rambling for now.  Basically, the race went as perfect as it could have and my pacing was better (more even...not quite as much dying at the end) than I could've ever expected from myself.

A Look Back at My First 2 Marathons

With the Chicago Marathon coming up IN 4 DAYS, I decided I should write a little about the 2 other marathons I have finished.

Columbus Marathon 2010:

Alex and I decided during the spring of our senior year at UD that we would train for the Columbus Marathon in October.  We were set to be roommates during our 5th year and thought this would be a good way to keep in shape since we wouldn't be running for UD that year.

(I know, I've already had this picture on the blog, but I think it's one of our best.)

I was coming back from an injury that had me confined to cross training during the spring, but slowly began to build up mileage throughout June and July.  By the time I was back at UD in mid-August, I was having no pain while running and was so happy to be back on campus and able to run with Alex and the younger UDXC girls.

Alex and I talked about running and the Columbus Marathon A LOT.  It was the first marathon for both of us, so it was a great learning experience.  I think one of my favorite discussions was about what form of energy supplements to take while running - the gu, the gummies, etc.

Here were my race splits:

I ran the race exactly as I planned - start at 8 minute pace for the first 5 miles, pick it up for as long as I can, and then I drastically slowed down over the last 10K.  I remember miles 6-18 were all between 7:15 and 7:35 and I remember thinking that the half marathon in the middle of my marathon would've been right on a PR.

Terrible picture, but it's the only one I have.  I had no race spectators so I had to ask a random lady to take my picture after I finished.  I was super pumped to have finished my first marathon in a time that was significantly under the BQ time - 3:28:55.

Chicago Marathon 2011:

I registered for the Chicago Marathon in February during my 5th year at UD.  I had been a spectator at the Chicago Marathon every year since I was a junior in high school when my cross country team volunteered at a Gatorade station along the course and really wanted to run it.

My training was decent in the earlier part of the summer...and then I started a public accounting job.  The longest run I got in during that summer was 17 miles on a Saturday morning in mid-August.  And then I went to work for a solid 14 hours that day.  I got very sick one day about a week later at the end of August due to being over-worked and after that, I think I didn't run at all for a solid 2-3 weeks.  Then I tried to get in a few more runs, but by that time, it was too late to get in any real training.  Needless to say, I was not prepared for the race and had gained about 10 pounds in just a few months due to the stresses of my job and minimal exercise.

I remember thinking the first few miles were OK, but by the time I started heading back south from Wrigley, so about 6 miles in, I could tell it was going to be a rough day.  From these splits though it looks like my first half was fairly decent...then I crashed and burned.  My mom told me I looked a lot better when they saw me around mile 18 than I did around mile 10.  I think by that point I knew I wasn't going to finish in any great time, so I just did what I could to finish and experience the race.

(sign made by Rachelle)

I had lots of spectators at this one - Mom & Dad, Catherine (Matt was running too!), Rachelle, Bailey, Jim & his sister, and a few aunts, uncles, and cousins (Aunt Bernadette & Uncle Rob were running too).  The best part though was that right when I finished, I crossed the line and almost fell over in Christina.  She told me she would be working the finish line (she was a PT student at the time) to help runners and luckily I found her right away!  And then the worst part of the day...walking a gazillion miles from Grant Park to wherever the car was parked.

And now I will have even more spectators at this year's Chicago Marathon!!

Race Recap: Chicago Half Marathon

I finished the Chicago Half Marathon yesterday!  I was not particularly pleased with the time, but also not as upset as I have been over bad races in my past.  I finished it without quitting or crying, so that's a success in my book.

First of all, I was supposed to be picked up for the 7am race at 6am.  Mac has a history of oversleeping when we are supposed to run (ok it happened once) and thought it would be hilarious to text me at 5:58am saying he just woke up.  I freaked out for about 2 minutes until he called and said he was outside.  Well played.

After parking, we warmed-up by running about a mile to the start.  We were a bit late because of the parking situation (typical Chicago), so there was no time for the bathroom and we hopped in the corral and started almost immediately.

 

This was my first race in the 25-29 year old age group.  These ladies are much faster.  I've read that women distance runners peak in their late 20s, which seems consistent with the age group results.  I would've been in the top 20 of the 20-24 year old age group.  But none of that really matters, just an observation.

There actually wasn't anything super eventful about the race.  I obviously made a sweet playlist for the occasion - all my recent/usual favorites.  The course was flat, a few tiny "hills" like when we had to run up an exit ramp off Lake Shore Drive and over a bridge.  There weren't spectators throughout the entire course, but there were enough that it didn't seem desolate.  The volunteers at all the water stations were high school students who were very enthusiastic and helpful!

The splits that the tracking device got for me were:

5 miles - 36:18 = 7:16/mile

10 miles - 1:16:31 = 7:39/mile total average and 8:02/mile for miles 5-10

Finish - 1:42:04 = 7:47/mile total average and 8:13/mile for last 5k

I also know after the first 5k I was at 22:08, which I thought was perfect because that is the exact time I was at during the first 5k of the North Shore Half Marathon in June.  My plan was to try to do the same pacing I did there, but then not die as much at the end.  I thought I'd be able to do this because my training has been  better in between that race and this one than it was the few weeks/months before that race.

It was about 5 miles into the race that I really started to feel like I couldn't keep up my pace and became a little mentally overwhelmed.  Mac was with me for about 4 miles and then he got ahead (or I slowed down, or a combo of both) and that didn't really bother me because I knew he would be faster, but I also think I should have tried a little harder to keep up.

Throughout the last half of the race, I walked about 30 seconds each mile when I was going through the water stations.  I did have one walk break that was probably about a minute long, but managed to get going again with the encouragement of some of the other runners on the course.  I really should be able to get through a half marathon without walk breaks and obviously I know I can considering I've done it plenty of times before.  But at least I know that while I was running, my pace was still decent... but a few short breaks will really get ya.

After the race, I had a lot of time to stretch out and relax while we waited for Mac's friend Bryce to finish the race.  Then the 3 of us went to get our free slice of Lou Malnati's pizza which is basically heaven on a plate.  I'm pretty sure the walk back to the car was at least as long as the race was.  But after we got in the car, put Teenage Dream on, and were heading for pancakes, life got a lot better.

And once we got to Elly's, I ran into my friend Nani who ran a PR in the race!  Pancakes are always the answer after a race.

I also used this race to see how my Chicago Marathon outfit would work out.  I have to say that I'm pretty happy with it.  I was unsure of the spandex shorts because I have only ever worn them for short runs before.  I bought the compression socks Saturday afternoon with a Fleet Feet gift card I got for my birthday and now I'm basically obsessed with them.  But I'm even more obsessed with my new blue sparkly headband.  Overall, I think the outfit was successful and comfortable.

My mom thinks I should wear a headband like Rafael Nadal and sent me this picture as an example:

Maybe if you added some glitter to it, I would.  I hope I look that intense in my official race photos.  I would however like to personally hunt down the jerk photographer who took a picture of me during one of my walking breaks.  That was not cool, dude.

Photo credit for the pictures of the race medals goes to my friend Megan.  After the race, I saw she had posted a few photos on Facebook from the finish line and she said she was there as a volunteer!  I wish I would've known ahead of time to keep an eye out.

Tempo Runs & Twitter

Yesterday, I read this article about tempo runs and ironically, I ended up doing a tempo run last night, which was not originally planned.

Mac and I were going to do mile repeats, but decided on just a normal run instead.  I thought a normal run would be good instead of a hard workout since we are racing on Sunday and I want fresh legs for that.  Well...normal/marathon pace for Mac = tempo run for Colleen.

I don't know all the actual splits on this because I was not in charge of the Garmin.  I think the first 2 miles were about 7:30 and then we picked it up for a few to 7 minute pace and then the last mile was back down to about 7:30 again.  I had my watch at 48 minutes and mapped it out online to 7 miles, so if that is all correct (or even if it's a bit off), that was a really fast run for me!  We did stop in the middle for a bit to stretch, etc. but that is quite alright and I needed that break.

So after I read that article on tempo runs, I started freaking out that there are only 5 and a half weeks left until the Chicago Marathon and that I haven't gotten in enough "quality" workouts or "marathon-specific" workouts.  I decided I really need to build in some tempo-paced runs.  With only about 3 weeks left before I have to taper, I wanted to know what workouts I should try to get in.  So I did the logical thing and emailed Catherine.  Subject line: important running question.

First of all, I realize this article is from 2007, but I doubt running philosophy changes that drastically (even though I do think running has gotten way more popular in the past couple years and more and more research has been done).  I just stumbled upon it yesterday because the Columbus Marathon tweeted it, so I read it.  They tweet lots of good articles.  You know who else tweets awesome stuff?  I do.  So you should follow me @CSmith_Run.  While you're at it, also follow @PJSmith9.  He tweets good stuff too (and he knows it).  Some examples:

Anyways though, Catherine and I are pretty comparable in pace and she has trained for a few marathons and knows what workouts are good.  So I trust her.  I asked what pace she does for tempo runs and if she has any good workout suggestions.  She usually does tempo runs around 7:20-7:30 pace, so that was consistent with what I was assuming.  The article says tempo pace should be 30-40 seconds per mile slower than your current 5k race pace.  I did a 4th of July 5k averaging 6:55 pace and I think I would be even a little faster than that now.  So the 7:20-7:30 tempo pace sounds pretty reasonable and manageable.

The article also said a good indication of tempo pace is the "talk test."  A simple question or answer should be possible, but conversation should not.  This was definitely true on our run last night...my sentences were pretty broken up in between gasps for air.  And then Mac got too fast for me so I was about 10 feet behind for a bit.  Conversation is not possible that way either.  I guess that means I need to get faster.

Catherine suggested a workout of 2 x 3 miles at tempo pace.  I think that would be a workout that would be very beneficial.  The article from Runner's World suggests a tempo workout of 2 x 5 or 6 miles at tempo pace, but with the warm-up and cool-down, that would essentially be a long run with tempo portions.  A workout that Mac has on the schedule in a week or two is 3 x 5k, which would also be at a "tempo" effort.  So I think I will aim to do that when he does and then make one of my two remaining 20 mile runs into a tempo workout/long run.  Two workouts in one!

Who is your favorite person to follow on Twitter?

Any good tempo workout suggestions?

Hot Trail Run & Bike Fail

The humidity won yesterday's battle. I went back to the Elk Grove Forest Preserve for a run, with the intention to do 2 loops to get in 15-16 miles since I will be traveling this weekend and unable to do a long run. Mom came with her bike too so she could get in her own exercise biking around while I ran and so she could hold water, Gatorade, and Gu for me. Unfortunately, nothing turned out quite as planned.

I ended up running 9 miles in 1:13:40, so about an hour short of my plan. At first I was disappointed with myself for not just pushing through it and I knew I wouldn't be able to get it in any other day this week. But I figured 9 miles in that heat/humidity at the pace I was going was still a very quality run! I also impressed myself with my ability to master a very consistent 8 minute mile.

Mom coming to the trail with me means I have a personal photographer. Putting my hair in a very tight bun was a way better decision than a ponytail flopping around all hot on neck. Anyways, when my intention was to do 2 loops, I wanted to do the first a little slower and then try to do my 2nd loop faster than my first. My splits for 9 miles were: 8:31, 7:59, 8:00, 7:59, 8:02, 8:01, 8:03, 8:14, and 7:50. I felt strong and relaxed but it was very hot and humid. Even when I stopped after the 9.1 miles when I met mom to take my Gu, I intended to keep going, but then the thought of finishing 6 more miles on that loop was very overwhelming.

Catherine has been telling me a lot about varying your paces during runs instead of always running the same pace for each run. I think this is what I'm going to really try to work on over the next few weeks. I can't keep running 8 minute miles for every run because then my body will get too used to it. Luckily last week, I had the 2 races which were a little faster and the long run that was closer to 8:10-8:15 pace. I was with other people for each of those runs which forces me to change it up from my normal pace. When I'm alone, I get too comfortable with the standard 8 minute pace.

Even though I didn't go as long as planned, I can't really consider it a failure since it was still a good, longer than normal run. Mom's bike ride wasa failure though. About halfway through the loop, she hit a bump and got a flat tire. This meant she had to walk her bike back the rest of the loop which was really miserable in the heat with all of the bugs too. They will really get you if you aren't moving fast enough.

When we got home I made a great salad with hard boiled eggs and obviously drank a lot of chocolate milk. Bailey ate my 2 packs of Gu that were sitting out. So now she owes me $3.

Stampede Run 5K & Race Time Calculator

Today I finished the Stampede Run 5K in 21:30.  I wanted to be closer to 21 minutes, but kind of expected more like 21:30 and my time averaged 6:55 pace, so I'm OK with that for right now.  I thought I'd be able to run faster since I ran a 3.5 mile race over a month ago at 6:57 pace.  My splits were 6:42, 6:58, and 7:49 for the last 1.1  - there was a 3 mile mark I realized after the race but I seemed to miss it while I was actually running.  So that last mile was right around 7 minutes also.  I obviously checked the race results online and would've easily taken first in my age group, but I had a registration fail.  I did not register ahead of time and apparently they only accept cash at race day registration and I only had $20 with me, not the required $35.  So I ran the race bandit-style.  Unfortunately, this meant no race shirt and no prize for winning my age group which is an awesome pint glass.  I do already have 3 of them from past years, but would've liked another.  After the race, I got to watch Julianne finish the 5K and then ran backwards along the course to find Jessica and run the last mile of the 10K with her.

Something we talked about during yesterday's long run was training paces and how different race distances can help predict your marathon time. However, I still don't think it's always necessarily a good indicator. Even Dave, who I ran with yesterday, said he ran a half marathon in 1:24 and could not seem to break a 3:10 marathon. He said he believes a lot had to do with the fact that when he was in that good of shape, it was snowing the day of the marathon and some people are just better at shorter distances and some better at longer.

I looked online and found what appears to be a very popular race time predictor here.  I was playing around with the calculator and put in today's 5K time, last month's half marathon time, and my goal marathon time.  I doubt anyone would ever run exactly the times such a calculator would predict, but it does seem to provide a good general idea/range of times.  Here's what I got:

So especially based on this, I should've ran a little faster than I did today.  Even the 10K time it predicted based on today's 5K would be slower than the first 10K I ran in last month's half marathon.  But I think it all just has to do with the conditions of the day.  Today was almost 80 degress already in the morning and that half marathon was rainy and cool.  My training this week was also a little skewed due to other circumstances and my mental state was not 100% this morning due to the registration issue.  I definitely still have some work to do though to feel more confident in the pace I want to run the marathon.  I wasn't planning to do any other races between now and the Chicago Marathon, but might do the Rock n' Roll Half Marathon in 2 weeks.  But that's probably going to depend on how the next 2 weeks go and probably what the weather is looking like that day.  Even if I don't register, I'd probably still go downtown for it and jump in to get in a solid run around other people.

Do you ever run races without registering? - I do quite a bit...usually if I'm just using it as a training run or to run with someone else.